哈尔滨工业大学（深圳）学术讲座

演讲人Speaker：何岱海

题目Title:

Resolving the enigma of Iquitos and Manaus: A modeling analysis of multiple COVID-19 epidemic waves in two Amazonian cities

时间Date：2023年5月30日       Time：上午10：30

地点Venue：H栋413室

内容摘要Abstract： 

The nearby cities of Iquitos (Peru) and Manaus (Brazil) experienced the world’s highest infection and mortality rates during the first COVID-19 wave in 2020. Key studies suggested that >70% of the city populations were infected in this wave and thus close to herd immunity and protected. It remains an enigma as to why a deadly second wave followed in Manaus worse than the first. To resolve this, we present a data-driven model of epidemic dynamics in Iquitos which we use to help explain and model events in Manaus. The partially observed Markov process model simultaneous fits a flexible “variable R0”, estimates long-term immunity waning and impulsive immune evasion, and thus provides a comprehensive framework for characterizing and modeling new variants of concern.

个人简介(About the speaker):

何岱海，副教授，博士生导师，就职于香港理工大学应用数学系，于1999年获西安交通大学工学博士学位，2006年获加拿大麦克马斯大学数学博士学位。曾在北京师范大学物理系、美国密歇根大学生态学系、以色列特拉维夫大学动物学系做博士后研究。主要研究兴趣是传染病建模和数据统计分析，在PNAS, Sci Adv, Ann Intern Med等权威期刊发表论文140余篇，研究成果受到国内外媒体的广泛报道。其关于非洲安哥拉黄热病的建模获2018年国际疾病监测学会的科学贡献最佳论文第二名，并先后获得香港研究资助局项目、香港食品与卫生环境署健康与医疗项目、阿里巴巴合作研究基金等多项基金资助。